Treasury
What the US government pays to borrow, how that is changing across maturities, how much it owes and what that costs. Explained as we go.
Nominal ≈ real + breakeven. The real yield is what a bond pays after expected inflation; gold pays nothing, so a falling real yield usually helps gold.
The average rate climbs slowly: old cheap debt rolls off and is refinanced at today's yields. Bills reprice within months, bonds over decades.
The curve
Each point is the yield on a Treasury of that maturity. Normally longer loans pay more. When short yields sit above long ones (inverted), markets expect rate cuts, and that has come before most US recessions.
Re-steepening
The recession signal is often the end of an inversion, not its start: when the curve turns positive again because short rates fall, the slowdown is usually already under way.
The Fed band
The Fed sets overnight rates. Bills track that band closely; anything past two years is the market's guess about where the Fed goes plus a premium for holding long.
Debt and interest
A bigger debt at higher rates means more of the budget goes to interest. Watch the average rate on the debt, not just the headline total.
The TGA
The Treasury's bank account at the Fed. When it fills, cash drains from banks and markets; when it is spent down, liquidity flows back in.
Why gold cares
Real yields are gold's opportunity cost. Rising debt costs and worries about who buys Treasuries are part of the case central banks make for buying gold.